Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 280856
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS MAINTAINING ITS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW...RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE
LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE CWA LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE LOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY MENTIONABLE POPS
BEYOND 00Z. ALSO TODAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH WITH THE EXITING LOW. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL THAT MUCH OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SUN OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...FOR THE CWA...THIS
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL AID IN
TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW. GREATER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH THE PLAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  47  75  50 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   62  45  74  49 /  60  10   0   0
MLC   59  45  73  47 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   67  44  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  40  70  44 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   62  43  69  47 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   63  44  72  48 /  50   0   0   0
MIO   66  43  72  48 /  10   0   0   0
F10   62  46  73  49 /  50   0   0   0
HHW   58  45  72  48 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20





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