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000
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2335 (S16E30,
Eac/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C8/1f at
04/0052 UTC. A C5 flare was observed from the east limb where old region
2322 is expected to return.

Two CMEs were observed during the period. The first was a narrow
emission far north of the ecliptic plane. The most prominent signature
was a halo observed around 04/1100 UTC. No features on the near side
were associated with the signature, suggesting a far side event.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for an
M-class flare (R1-R2, minor-moderate), over the next three days (05-07
May) due to flare activity from Region 2335 and the return of old Region
2322, which produced event level flare activity last rotation.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (05-07 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed continues its steady decline as we exit the influence
of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speeds began the period around 400 km/s, slowing to around 370 km/s
by the end of the period. IMF total field values varied from 5-6 nT
while the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. The phi angle remained
in a positive (away from the Sun) solar sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels
initially in the period. Late on day one (05 May), a minor solar wind
enhancement is anticipated through midday on day two (06 May) due to the
onset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A further solar wind
enhancement is anticipated midday to late on day two (06 May) due to the
arrival of the 02 May CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as effects from the positive
polarity CH HSS wane.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels through the
majority of day one (05 May) under an ambient solar wind environment.
Unsettled field conditions are expected late on day one (05 May)through
midday on day two (06 May) due to the onset of a negative polarity CH
HSS. Unsettled to active geomagnetic field conditions are likely
beginning midday to late on day two (06 May) due to the anticipated
arrival of the 02 May CME.


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