Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FNUS73 KEAX 311110
FWSEAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR OVERTON BOTTOMS...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...20 FOOT WINDS OF 5-8 MPH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE EFFECTIVE
SMOKE DISPERSION ONCE THE HEATING CYCLE BEGINS. DESPITE THIS
HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SMOKE IMPACTS ON I-70 IN RESPONSE
TO WINDS CHANGING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........10  9   9   9   9   10  10  10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............61  64  68  71  72  74  74  73
RH..............45  37  31  29  28  27  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   7   7   6   5   3
20 FT WIND GUST.                            5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1700 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........10  10  11  11  11  12  12  13  14  16  17  18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............71  66  62  60  58  56  55  53  52  51  50  49
RH..............30  36  41  45  49  51  54  58  62  65  69  72
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   7
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH 17 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........19  20  22  24  26  28  29  31  36  41  45  50
WEATHER COV.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............49  49  54  60  65  69  73  76  79  80  80  79
RH..............74  76  68  59  50  45  41  38  36  35  36  39
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..8   9   12  14  15  16  17  18  18  18  18  17
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  20  20  25  25  25  30  30  30  25
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...WFO EAX
REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150331.OVERT.01/EAX





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