Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FNUS71 KRNK 041309
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THE BURN SITE...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM AT OR NEAR THE BURN
SITE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  32  39  44  47  49  50  48
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  64  67  70  73  75  77  76
RH..................49  42  39  34  31  29  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   8   9   9   10  12  12
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  39  33  30  28  26  26  26  26  25  25  26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  71  68  65  63  60  59  58  56  56  55  54
RH..................31  37  43  48  52  57  60  63  66  70  74  80
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  8   6   3   2   2   3   3   2   2
CWR.................0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   10  10  0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS LATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............27  28  31  34  39  43  51  61  68  73  74  74
WEATHER COV.........                            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                        SCT SCT
TEMP................52  52  57  60  64  67  69  71  73  74  75  76
RH..................89  93  81  72  63  56  53  49  46  45  44  43
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......1   1   0   2   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   5   9   13  13  12  9   8   8   7
CWR.................10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.02/RNK


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