Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 031834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL
WATERS NEAR 29N91W...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT
SEAS PREVAILING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS W OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FAR EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT IS
MOVING W AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
MAINTAINING FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE E OF 94W.

THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE INTO THE SE GULF...
ALLOWING FOR INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
SE GULF MON INTO TUE. THE AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TO BUILD. THE RESULTING
INCREASED PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT. THE FETCH AND DURATION OF THE E FLOW AGAINST THE
FLORIDA CURRENT WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OVER THE SE
GULF OFF THE NW COAST OF CUBA ON MON. THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY TUE
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH DAMPENS OUT...
LEAVING GENERALLY MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS MOST THE BASIN THROUGH
FRI...EXCEPT WINDS MORE NE-E IN THE GULF E OF 87W...WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF AND 1 TO 3
FT IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NE TO E
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PESKY STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DECAYING BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY
BECOMING A REMNANT TROUGH BY MON MORNING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AFTER THE FRONT WASHES OUT.

MEANWHILE FARTHER EAST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER IMPULSES NORTH
OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THIS WILL
INCREASE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE
EASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT TUE...THEN UP TO 12 FT WED THROUGH
FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
MON...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER MOST PARTICULARLY WITH
THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW PRES IN VICINITY OF BAHAMAS.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 24N67W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY BEFORE CONTINUING TO EASTERN CUBA. 1022 MB
HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED OFF OF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST TO NEAR
31N80W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A RECENT ASCAT
PASS MEASURED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS S OF 25N W OF 73W.
OTHERWISE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL N OF
27N WHICH IS 2-3 FT ABOVE THE LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE...
WITH 4-7 FT SEAS S OF 27N EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE PROTECTED WATERS OF
THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGHER SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN/STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON.

THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR TUE THROUGH FRI CONTINUES TO BE THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SOME
DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE TIMING...
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. THE GFS APPEARS TO CONTINUE
TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH IS LEADING TO
A STRONGER SOLUTION...AND ALSO MUCH CLOSER TO THE SE UNITED STATES
COAST COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WITH THE
NEW 12 UTC ECMWF TRENDING EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION.
THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ALSO CONSIDERABLY MORE WEAK WITH THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THIS LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION. ELSEWHERE MODERATE SE FLOW PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/LOW.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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