Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N12W AND EXTENDS ALONG 03N15W TO 3N21W
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N33W 01N40W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 02S TO 02N W
OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO
SE LOUISIANA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUPPORTS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL
LINE MOVING ALONG SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SE
LOUISIANA...EXTENDING TO ADJACENT WATERS N OF 28N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
NE GULF WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NW TEXAS SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED BY A 1001 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 25N95W. A SECOND
LOW PRESSURE CENTER ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE NW BASIN ALONG 28N96W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO
INLAND MEXICO. SEA FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THIS REGION OF THE
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W...COINCIDING GOES-13 IFR MEDIUM TO HIGH
FOG PROBABILITIES. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE S-SE OF 10 TO 15 KT
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 27N. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE
BEING REPORTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SQUALL LINE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF EASTERN BASIN
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN IT STARTS RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT. THE
LOW OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DRIFT N AND THEN EAST ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF...REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WED MORNING WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS WITH STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
SUPPORTING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE SW BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA...HOWEVER NO
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. SCATTERED PATCHES OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASIN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATING THE
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 83W AND S OF
15N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W WHERE 20 KT WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE ATLC WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN BASIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY WED
AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND AS MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGING
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
HAITI AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW N
ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N66W TO 28N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE NE GULF FROM 29N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AHEAD OF IT...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N58W TO 27N72W WITH SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 33N47W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 275 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. A 1019
MB DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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