Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 021755
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK THOUGH WILL NEED TO UPDATE FOR MORE
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF CENTRAL IL THROUGH
SUNSET PER LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER KY AND TN RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT SE OF KY/TN BY THIS
EVENING WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO IL TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DRY TODAY WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
BRINGING IN MILDER TEMPERATURES. WEAK SHORT WAVE NEAR IA/NE BORDER
TO TRACK EAST INTO EASTERN IA BY MID EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND
NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON, AND INTO WEST CENTRAL IL AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE TODAY...PROMOTING GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SLOWLY
MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
SHALLOW SCATTERED CUMULUS LAYER DEVELOPING IN LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 6 TO 10 MPH
EXPECTED TODAY...ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST UP INTO THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING KEEPING THE WEATHER MILD IN THE SHORT TERM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUASI ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE PLAINS SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE MIDWEST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.  WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...A FRONT SETTLES INTO THE
REGION AND STALLS OUT...BECOMING A FOCUS FOR STORMS AND PRECIP FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES HOLDING ON UNTIL A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ERODING THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS AT
LEAST TUES NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.  MODELS SHIFT GEARS AGAIN ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF MIDWEEK, GOING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS WAVES CONTINUE TO RIPPLE AROUND THE SWRN
LOW AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  A RATHER WET FORECAST OVERALL, WITH
SEVERAL DIFFERENT PATTERNS ESTABLISHING THEMSELVES...AND KEEPING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OUTLOOK.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES OVERALL AND GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING WARMER.
ECMWF 850MB TEMPS STAYING IN THE 11-13C THROUGH MIDWEEK...EVEN
WARMER TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK...BUT THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL
BE COUNTERED BY PRECIP IN THE MORE ACTIVE SWRLY PATTERN.  OVERALL,
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST CENTERS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT
STALLING OUT AND THE SUBSEQUENT FOCUS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION/TRAINING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...BUT PROLONGED RAINFALL MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED A BIT FOR MON AND TUES, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL
AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE 7K FT WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA TO TRACK EAST TOWARD THE IL/IA
BORDER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEAKEN FURTHER. VCSH AT PIA AFTER
02Z AND AS FAR EAST AT I-55 AT BMI AND SPI AFTER 04Z TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS FAR EAST
DURING 2ND HALF OF EVENING WHILE NAM MODEL (WHICH INITIALIZED TOO
DRY) KEEPS CENTRAL IL DRY NEXT 24 HOURS. SSW WINDS 9-13 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO BE SSE 4-8 KTS TONIGHT AND SSW 9-13 KTS SUNDAY WITH
FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS 5-6 KFT AND SOME BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT
OR ABOVE 10K FT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07


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