Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 042354
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
654 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN
KANSAS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE I-72
CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
KILX CWA.  HRRR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.  HAVE
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES ACCORDINGLY...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG/NORTH OF
I-72 TAPERING DOWN TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION STARTING ON TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST INTO
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECTS NORTH OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WEST...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT 500 MB TROF IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK
OUT OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MOST MODELS TRACK THIS LOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY SUGGESTING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO
REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
UNTIL THEN...WARM TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TOMORROW AS THE FRONT RETREATS BACK
TO THE NORTH...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THU INTO FRIDAY
AND HOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED W-E ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE FRONT, KPIA, KBMI, AND KCMI ARE THE MOST LIKELY OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES TO BE IMPACTED. EXPECT MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WITH WINDS
TRENDING SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD,
ALSO TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION RISK WITH IT.
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
STEADIER RAINFALL.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BAK


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