Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 171720
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE REGION KEEPING MILD WEATHER IN PLACE. QUICK
MORNING WARM UP UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND TEMPS ON TRACK TO
HEAD INTO THE UPPER 70S. ALTHOUGH CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN THE
NORTH THAN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...AND SHOULD NOT
INTERFERE TOO MUCH WITH THE DIURNAL TREND UNDER SUCH LIGHT WINDS.
FORECAST DOING WELL...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MAJOR
UPDATES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED AROUND 2 AM FOR EASTERN IL WILL BE
ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CDT. THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE DENSE
FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4 MILE OR LESS HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-
57 AND COULD EXPAND FURTHER WEST OF I-57 WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG AS FAR WEST AS I-55 PER HRRR MODEL UNTIL 9 AM. ONCE
THE FOG LIFTS LATER THIS MORNING A NICE MILD SPRING DAY IS SHAPING
UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER IN
AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL GIVING  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING MID/LATE SAT AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SW OF A GALESBURG TO LINCOLN TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND IL YET ON SATURDAY TO BRING ANOTHER
MILD SPRING DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY, WITH MILDEST
READINGS NEAR THE IN BORDER WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY GETS
ABSORBED BY NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW NORTH OF ND/MN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE SUNDAY. FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NE FROM OK PANHANDLE TO NEAR CENTRAL IL BY
SUNSET SUNDAY AND SWEEPS A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH IL SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS TO LIKELY BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF I-74
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SLIGHT RISK SW OF A
PITTSFIELD TO EFFINGHAM TO LAWRENCEVILLE LINE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS SUNDAY MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
WITH SOME UPPER 60S NORTH OF I-74.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF THEN DOMINATES THE MIDWEST MONDAY-THURSDAY
AS STRONG CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER IN AND
NORTHERN IL. COOLER HIGHS OF 60-65F MONDAY WITH MILDEST READINGS BY
LAWRENCEVILLE. HAVE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. THEN SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS WED/THU WITH A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SW WITH GFS MODEL TRENDING MUCH WETTER DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHILE ECMWF MODEL IS KEEPING IL DRY. COOL HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUE-WED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S, WITH COOLEST READINGS FROM I-74 NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

DIURNAL CU ACROSS THE REGION DEVELOPING AND VERY FEW OVER
CMI...BUT MORE BKN TO THE SOUTH FOR SPI AND DEC POTENTIALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
STILL PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO LEND TO A
SLIGHT REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO MAINLY MVFR VIS...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE XOVER TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF MIXING IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN WITH THE LIGHT FLOW...BUT
SINCE WESTERN TERMINALS WERE RELATIVELY LIGHT VIS DROPS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT SOME OF THAT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS



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