Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 260136
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
836 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY HAS PUSHED SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER SUPPORT
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS NEVER GOT TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WITH
MOST OF THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THAT IS ABOUT IT AS FAR AS ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIP TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EDGE SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES WITH
A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDEST EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
EARLIEST LATER TONIGHT WITH OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING AND TWEAKED THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ZFP UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW CENTER AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL/SE ILLINOIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS AND SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE NORTHWARD TO AROUND CLAY RICHLAND AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES AND
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 P.M. FOR THESE THREE
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT FORECAST AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LOW
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND SHOWERS
AND LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL/SE IL AS COOL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL IL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. FOR CENTRAL IL...THIS WILL
PRODUCE COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 TO 65...LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND FAIRLY PERSISTENT LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE MONDAY
MORNING...BUT PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO MAKE FROST ONLY A
MARGINAL POSSIBILITY...MAINLY I-74 NORTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND ANOTHER WEAKER  WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH...MODELS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT IN AMOUNT AND INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE...AND KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD LATE IN
THE WEEK TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IT APPEARS
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES...PIA AND BMI...WILL BE FIRST TO SEE THE
CLEARING TREND IN THE 06Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WITH POINTS SOUTH
CLEARING OUT BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AT
TIMES THIS EVENING BUT TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE IN THIS SET OF
TAFS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS EVE.
LOOK FOR A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AT TIMES.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH


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