Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011801
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
101 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE PLANNED WITH A BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAY UNFOLDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTEAST IL. AMPLE
SUNSHINE TODAY ACROSS THE PRAIRIE STATE AS JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE HIGHS NEAR
70F WITH GENTLE WINDS NEAR 10 MPH OR LESS.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN IL LATE THIS MORNING, WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND INDIANA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM IA AND
NW MO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. 1030 AM TEMPS 55-60F
AND SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 70F BY 4 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
CENTRAL IL TODAY BRINGING AN END TO THE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS FROM
THURSDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AROUND THE AREA. GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TODAY...GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MUCH OF THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE DRY. FIRST
UPPER WAVE DRIES OUT WHILE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THE MODELS DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS THE NEXT
WAVE EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POP`S SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HINT AT SOME SHOWER REMNANTS CROSSING THE RIVER LATE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WARM NICELY THIS WEEKEND...WITH MID 70S FOR HIGHS
SATURDAY AND LIKELY SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS WEST OF I-55 SUNDAY.

FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE WET IN AT
LEAST PART OF THE MIDWEST...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS WHILE
PARALLELING THE UPPER FLOW. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THIS
BOUNDARY A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-72 MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT MAY INFLUENCE WHERE THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY ENDS UP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT HIGHS A BIT COOLER ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MID 70S...WHILE 80 DEGREES
IS MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE INTO MID WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GET A
GOOD NORTHWARD PUSH BY MID WEEK, AND LIMITED ANY POP`S TO SILENT
20S TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY
SHOULD EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SOME
DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS ON HOW THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE EVOLVES...BUT BOTH AGREE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS
THROUGH SATURDAY. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IL WILL
SETTLE INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL. THIS WILL CONTINUE FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STAY LESS THAN
10 KTS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NNE WINDS IN EASTERN IL BY CMI THIS
AFTERNOON OTHERWISE MAINLY SSW WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED INTO SAT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...ONTON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07


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