Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 151609
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1109 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION WITH EASTERLY FLOW.
CONCERN FOR PRECIP REALLY LATER IN THE DAY MAINLY AFTER 00Z AT
THIS POINT WITH DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
SOUNDING. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS...AND WILL BE
SENDING OUT AN UPDATE MOMENTARILY. NEED TO MAKE FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINTS WITH THAT DRY AIR MIXING OUT THE RH
AT THE SFC LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA, IS HELPING TO KEEP DRY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS IF ANY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DECAYING UPPER LOW.

THE OVERALL TREND THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN DRIER AND SLOWER
LOCALLY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TIMING LOCALLY. GIVEN
THE WEAK FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING FEATURE, AND THE DRY AIRMASS
THAT IT WILL BE PUSHING INTO, PLAN TO GO MOSTLY DRY TODAY. WILL
ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS WHERE THE WEAK
FORCING ARRIVES A LITTLE SOONER, AND THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS
DRY. OTHERWISE, LOOKING FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD
COVER, AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

HAVE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH AND SW DURING
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT AS
WEATHER SURFACE LOW EJECTS NE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THU MORNING. CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN IL THU WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IN BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID 50S IN SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70. HIGHS
THU IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
NIGHT WITH JUST 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON
FRIDAY THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY DURING THIS TIME AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR IL AND GET SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH HANDLING EJECTING OF CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO IL AS AN UPPER TROF BY SUNDAY, AND
ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS. GFS STILL BRINGS IN QPF INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THE DAY SAT WHILE ECMWF MODELS KEEPS QPF JUST SW OF CENTRAL
IL DURING DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN SPREADS IT NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TRIMMED POPS ON SAT TO DRY IN NNE
COUNTIES FROM I-74 NE AND SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL/SW COUNTIES SW OF I-
74 , THEN BRING POPS UPWARD FROM SW TO NE DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT AROUND 70F AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND. CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST IL. COOLER HIGHS OF 59-65F ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUE AS UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PULLS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THEN. HIGHS TUE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS
INTO THIS EVENING. THEN, THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING UPPER/SURFACE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CIGS DECREASING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND
POSSIBLY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCSH
MENTION AT THIS TIME. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...BAK



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