Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 010433
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1133 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TONIGHT`S FORECAST ONLY REQUIRES A FEW TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TRENDS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

546 DM 500 MB CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL TRACK SE
INTO TO THE VA/TN BORDER BY 06Z/1 AM TONIGHT AND TO NC BY 12Z/FRI AS
IT WEAKENS TO 552 DM. MEANWHILE WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW MO WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD
THE IA/IL BORDER BY DAWN AND INTO CENTRAL IL AND SE MO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STAYING SE OF IL OVER SE
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SE AWAY
FROM IL. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
FROM PEORIA TO TAYLORVILLE EASTWARD TO INDIANA WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AT
MID AFTERNOON TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER DARK. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40F AS CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISH. DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S SO A FEW FAVORED COLD SPOTS LIKE ALTONA COULD GET A BIT
COLDER. STILL THINK PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT FROM 3-7 AM WILL BE
FOCUSED MORE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/IN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO OUR EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PICTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WHICH SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY AND HOLD THERE THRU AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND FINALLY IN TO THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOKING RATHER DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS
WEAKENING FEATURE WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO BACK OFF ON THE THREAT
FOR RAINFALL IN OUR AREA WITH THIS FEATURE. IN FACT...GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THE MAIN THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
AS THIS FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER (ZONAL) FLOW PATTERN
EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCATED. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.
THE KEY WILL BE JUST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLD WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS TIME OF
YEAR HAVING AN INFLUENCE ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL
SETTLE. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTING... THE HIGHER POPS WILL NEED TO BE SHIFTED
SOUTH AS WELL.

THE PAST FEW MODELS RUNS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT AFTER THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...WE MAY SEE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP LATER TUESDAY INTO WED. AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SOUTHWEST SYSTEM THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MINIMAL AND WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BAK


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