Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 150834
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015


.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

HAVE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH AND SW DURING
TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT AS
WEATHER SURFACE LOW EJECTS NE FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THU MORNING. CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY EASTERN IL THU WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF I-57
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IN BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND MID 50S IN SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70. HIGHS
THU IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE
CLOUDS LINGER LONGER IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU
NIGHT WITH JUST 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ON
FRIDAY THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY DURING THIS TIME AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR IL AND GET SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MILDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

MODELS STILL DIFFER WITH HANDLING EJECTING OF CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO IL AS AN UPPER TROF BY SUNDAY, AND
ASSOCIATED QPF FIELDS. GFS STILL BRINGS IN QPF INTO CENTRAL IL
DURING THE DAY SAT WHILE ECMWF MODELS KEEPS QPF JUST SW OF CENTRAL
IL DURING DAY ON SATURDAY, THEN SPREADS IT NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL
DURING SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TRIMMED POPS ON SAT TO DRY IN NNE
COUNTIES FROM I-74 NE AND SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL/SW COUNTIES SW OF I-
74 , THEN BRING POPS UPWARD FROM SW TO NE DURING SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT AROUND 70F AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY DUE TO
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND. CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST IL. COOLER HIGHS OF 59-65F ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUE AS UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW PULLS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE THEN. HIGHS TUE MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER A
WEAKENING SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL IL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME, LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION
IN TAFS, BUT INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 00Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY EASTERLY 8-15 KTS WITH HIGHER VALUES AND SOME GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON


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