Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 160829
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

UPPER TROFFING WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH
RIDGING TAKING ITS PLACE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROFFING WILL ALSO
BRING OUR RAINFALL CHANCES TO AN END FOR NOW. THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE VORTICITY CENTER WITH THE TROF IS
CURRENTLY OVER OUR FAR EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES, AND IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWERS FALLING OVER CHAMPAIGN, VERMILION, AND EDGAR
COUNTIES. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS
MORNING, THEY SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY, BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROF PULLS AWAY AND THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN TO HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. ONE THING THAT WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY
IS THE WINDS, WHICH WILL THANKFULLY BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE GUSTY
CONDITIONS SEEN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU
APR 16 2015

CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHIFT EAST OF IL BY SUNSET WITH WEATHER SYSTEM
EXITING AND CLOUDS DECREASING OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EASTERN IL THIS EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S WITH MILDEST READINGS SOUTHERN AREAS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS IL/IN FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO IL. THIS TO BRING MILDER HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STILL NEAR IL. RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MOST MODELS KEEP QPF SW OF CENTRAL IL SATURDAY THROUGH GFS DOES
BRING SOME QPF INTO SW HALF OF CWA SAT AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY SAT MORNING WITH 20-30% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSORMS FROM GALESBURG TO LINCOLN TO ROBINSON SW SAT
AFTERNOON.

A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
LATE THIS WEEK EJECTS ENERGY NE TOWARD IL SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MORE CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY KEEPS COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN
IL. MODELS THEN SHIFT QPF NE OF CENTRAL IL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
NORTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN BY 18Z/MON.
COOLER HIGHS MONDAY OF 58-64F WITH MILDEST READINGS NEAR
LAWRENCEVILLE. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE WITH
HIGHS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TUE. GFS SPREADS QPF INTO IL WED WHILE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPS IT DRY. SIDED WITH CONSENSUS WITH 20-30% CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WED-THU WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. STILL INFLUENCED BY
UPPER LEVEL TROF WED WITH COOL HIGHS IN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S,
MILDEST READINGS IN SOUTHEAST IL SOUTH OF I-70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBY
IN SE IL THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED -SHRA SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN IL. EXPECT -SHRA AND ISOLD-SCT MVFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECT
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH 9Z-12Z, THEN
GRADUALLY DEPARTING TO THE EAST. TOWARD MORNING, COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT FOG PRODUCING MVFR VSBY OR LOCAL IFR VSBY ALONG WITH CIGS
DECREASING TO MVFR CATEGORY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING
AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWEST FLIGHT CATEGORIES/HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED KSPI-KCMI SOUTHWARD WHERE INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. WINDS E 6-12
KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 18Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON


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