Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 250729
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
229 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70.

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS WERE STARTING TO REDEVELOP OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL IL LATE
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...WE SHOULD SEE CIGS AND VSBYS
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND THEN IFR BY MORNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WHICH WILL KEEP THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
GOING THRU MOST OF SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL IL THRU AT LEAST 03Z SUNDAY BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME DRIER AIR ADVECT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD BRING
ABOUT AN IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT AT 10
TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 20 KTS BY MORNING...THEN
WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR WIND SPEEDS TO AVERAGE
FROM 12 TO 17 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SMITH


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