Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 261545
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE WEST. NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY, GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE BIT
OF MIXING. MODELS HINTING AT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE BTWN
5000-8000 FT OR SO. CU RULE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG UNDER THE
RIDGE AND MIXING MAY INHIBIT A LOT OF CU...BUT STILL POSSIBLE TO
SEE A FEW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE QUIET, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
IN SOUTHEAST IL FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL MID-MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 20 MPH
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BY AFTERNOON...HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 60 DEGREES DUE
TO THE DEEP LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE
WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY UNTIL WE
FINALLY GET NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA...AND THIS WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND AS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED, A SMALL
CLOSED LOW WILL PINCH OFF IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THIS SMALL LOW DROPPING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE NAM
BRINGS THIS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GFS PROGRESSES THE WAVE
WELL EAST BEFORE THE LOW CAN FORM. NET RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS FOR
DRY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...WHILE GENERAL BROAD TROUGHING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY EVENING...AS THE GFS BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT POTENTIAL MCS
ACTIVITY AS WELL. WITH THE MORE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT THE
LATE WEEKEND FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CLOUDS IS JUST SOUTH OF I-70 AS OF
1130Z. A DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL IL TODAY AND PUSH THE LOW
CLOUDS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. HAVE SEEN MVFR VISIBILITY
JUST DEVELOP IN EAST CENTRAL IL...SO WILL CONTINUE THIS IN THE TAF
FOR KCMI UNTIL 14Z WHEN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL MIX OUT THE
LIGHT FOG.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD SOMEWHAT GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN IL. THE RAP AND NAM MODELS BOTH INDICATE THAT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CUMULUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL GO THROUGH THE TYPICAL EARLY EVENING
DECOUPLING WITH A CLEAR SKY AND VERY LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY FOG AT THIS POINT SINCE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP DRY OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS AND
SURFACE.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...MILLER


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