Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 280150
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
850 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE...ALL THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST
OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY TIME OF CONCERN FOR
FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 200 AM THRU 700 AM WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 34 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
LIKE THIS MORNING...BETWEEN 730 AND 800 AM...WE SHOULD SEE THE
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RISE THEREAFTER. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURE DECLINE AND SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS
OVER THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. SHOULD HAVE THE UPDATE OUT BY
900 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING CENTRAL ILLINOIS AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP EXPECTED AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 30S YET
AGAIN. SWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY REACH TOWARDS A LOW OF 40,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST.  NERN CWA NOT  AS WARM AND PATCHY
FROST STILL LIKELY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH XOVER TEMPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE BIT AND PREVENT A BIG
DROP IN VIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
INTO CENTRAL IL AND WILL KEEP A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND GOING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S IN MUCH OF CENTRAL IL...HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 60S
TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

FAIRLY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW PASSES BY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES AND A
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD AS
IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY A DEEP LOW OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST. CURRENT
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER LOW SOUTH
THROUGH INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
ILLINOIS...AND PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
REGION. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING POPS INTO THE FORECAST
BUT HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AS THIS COULD TURN OUT TO
BE A COOL BREEZY DAY.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL IL FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS MAINLY 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THRU TUESDAY BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. THOSE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS WITH
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
WIND TOMORROW MAY NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH
PREDOMINATE SPEEDS IN THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...ONTON
AVIATION...SMITH


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