Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271045
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL DOT CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IMPACT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY WEATHER...AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM UPDATE... SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE
ROTATING INTO THE RGN FROM THE N...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
RETROGRADES SLOWLY WWD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DESPITE THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL FORCED LIFT WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK TDY...OWING MAINLY TO POOR JET DYNAMICS. THUS...POPS
WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH ONLY ISOLD-SCTD SHWR COVERAGE
FORESEEN.

LACK OF INSOLATION WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO AVG FOR LATE APRIL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE... ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS SHOULD LINGER THIS EVE...BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TNT...AS THE ABV MENTIONED UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
KICK EWD AGN AWAY FROM THE RGN...OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC.

TUE-WED...DRY WX IS EXPECTED...AS SFC RIDGING BLDS SEWD FROM
ONT...AND S/WV RIDGING DVLPS IN THE MID-LVLS. ALTHOUGH CLDS COULD
LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY TUE...WITH MOISTURE PERHAPS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH BLDG HGTS ALOFT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY/DURG
TUE AFTN...WITH PTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN ANTICIPATED WED.

BETTER INSOLATION AND AMS MODIFICATION SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS INTO
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND EURO ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON THE CLSD LOW AND
DVLPG CSTL SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM...WITH THE GFS TRENDING TWRD
THE EURO. LONG WV PTRN IS SIMILAR WITH FLAT RDGG INTO THE UPR MID
WEST. DFRNCS CONT TO STEM FROM THE HANDLING OF A NRN STREAM WV
DROPPING INTO THE EAST CST TROF...AND IT/S INTERACTIONS WITH A
STRONG SRN STREAM SYSTEM. EURO CONTS TO KEEP A SEPARATE AND
DOMINANT SRN STREAM STORM MVG OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST...KEEPING
A WEAK TROF TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN
THE NRN WV AND CAPTURE THE SRN WV RESULTING IN A DEEP SYSTEM OFF
THE CST AND A CLSD UPR LOW OVER WRN NY. GFS SOLN WLD LIKELY
PRODUCE A COLDER AND WETTER SCENARIO...PERHAPS SOME SNOW...FOR THE
FCST AREA. EURO WLD CONT TO KEEP THE AREA BLO NRML...BUT MUCH LGTR
AND ALL LIQUID ON THE PCPN.

WITH THE GFS/S TENDENCY TO CREATE BOGUS DEEP STORMS IN THE LONG
TERM...WILL CONT TO FOLLOW THE EURO SOLN AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS
WITH BLO NRML TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE XTNDD PD. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR
A CONTD GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN THE WX INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME LGT PCPN CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TODAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT DROP SOUTHWARD AS WE REMAIN IN
A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL REMAIN IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP ALL SITES FOR THE MOST PART AT VFR. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING THAT SOME SITES MAY SEE HIGH END MVFR
UNTIL MIXING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE. ONCE THIS OCCURS ALL MVFR CIGS
WILL LIFT TO VFR.

TONIGHT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANCE TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR KITH AND KBGM TO SEE LOW END MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.

WINDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WILL BECOME GUSTY AND REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE - THU...MAINLY VFR.

FRI...POSSIBLY MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND BR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...KAH



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