Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WITH LIGHT
FOG PERSISTING DESPITE AN OVERCAST DECK BETWEEN 1500 AND 2K FEET.
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MODERATE WINDS CAUSING CEILINGS TO RISE. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE WINDS TO BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AT AERODROME MFE...HOWEVER THIS POSSIBILITY HASN/T BEEN
BUILT INTO THE CURRENT TAFS...AND MAY NEED TO BE BY SUCCESSIVE
SHIFTS TODAY. MVFR WILL RESUME TONIGHT WITH LOWERED CEILINGS AND
LIGHT WINDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 MILES. RADAR IS DEVOID
OF ANY ECHOES...A NICE CHANGE OF PACE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

TODAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS
1.59 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...SO ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS TO
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT LOOKED REASONABLE AND WERE KEPT
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

TONIGHT...FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THE
PARTIAL PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE SECOND HALF. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOKED
A LITTLE TOO COOL AND WERE INCREASED...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FRONT
WILL JUST BE CLEARING THE CENTRAL PART OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...WEAK FRONT COMPLETES ITS TRANSITION THROUGH THE BRO CWFA...
BUT NOT BEFORE STILL ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE APPEARED
WAY TOO WARM AND THE COOLER INHERITED TEMPERATURES WERE RETAINED.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TRAVELS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH ITS CENTERED OVER OK EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR
WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW`S CIRCULATION WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS
UP ALOFT OVER NORTHERN MX INTO SOUTH TX. AS THIS LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST TUE
..A FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE
CONTENT IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS
CENTERED OVER OK. THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE SOURCE OF THE AIRMASS COMES FROM
THE NORTH. CROSS SECTION DEPICT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN
DURING THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA. OVERNIGHT TUE THE TEMPS LOWER TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE RIVER AND UPPER
50S OVER THE RANCHLANDS WITH CLOUD COVER PREVAILING OVERCAST. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH CENTERED SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR FILTERING IN AND BREAKING THE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL WARM UP TEMPS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. THURSDAY SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD VEERING WINDS
SOUTHEAST. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNING. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP EACH DAY WITH ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE AREA KEEPING
SKY CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 4 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 6 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
OVER 2.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 02 CDT/07 UTC. FAVORABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS PREVAILING. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
DO VERY LITTLE TO INCREASE WINDS AND BUILD SEAS. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL BRING A FRONT TUESDAY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BUILD SEAS
UP TO 7 FEET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SCA TO BE ISSUED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY LOWER SEAS
AND WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST VEERING WINDS SOUTHEAST AND
LOWERING SEAS TO LESS THAN 2 FEET. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO CHANCE OF RAIN
AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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