Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 020453
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS RAN FROM NEAR
MASON CITY IN N CENTRAL IA SW TO NEAR OMAHA AS OF 1130 PM. AREA
RADARS ALSO SHOWED A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL VORT MAX FEEDING OFF THE 850 MB
MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY LIFTING NORTHEAST. WHILE
THERE REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
FRONT THAT CURRENT TIMING HAS REACHING THE NW FORECAST AREA BORDER
AROUND 3 AM...THEN THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO SUNRISE AND THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN UPDATED ALONG THESE LINES. INSPECTION OF SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE 00Z GFS AND NAM TRENDING TOO MOIST AND
OVERDONE WITH QPF AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER SE IA INTO W CENTRAL IL
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TO THE SOUTH OF A 994 MB LOW LOCATED ON THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA
BORDER. CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN A
DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS INTO THE 70S AND EVEN LOWER 80S
WHICH HAS PRODUCED EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN IOWA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN ILLINOIS.

MOLINE IS CURRENTLY AT 80F/32F WITH RH DOWN TO 17 PERCENT AND WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH. IMPRESSIVELY DRY FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.
IN FACT SEVERAL SMOKE PLUMES HAVE BEEN DETECTED ON RADAR AS OF 3 PM.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN IOWA AND A
PORTION OF FAR WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 7 PM CDT WHERE WINDS ARE
GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH AND RH IS NEAR 20 PERCENT. OUTSIDE OF THIS ZONE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS BAD BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
STILL EXIST. IF A GRASS FIRE OR WILDFIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 7 PM...AS WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE AREA...MOSTLY BETWEEN 3AM-9AM/THU. MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH
TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.

AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.00-1.25 INCHES CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 INCHES WILL INCREASE. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY SEE UP TO 0.50 INCHES.

THURSDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA.
ANY RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BY THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. STEADY NW FLOW WILL CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO
CONTINUALLY FALL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERALL A PLEASANT AFTN IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL SWING FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A NEW ROUND OF MOISTURE AND FORCING BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER... ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE EXTREMELY DRY BELOW 7000 FEET. THUS IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD REACH THE GROUND IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES IS SOUTH OF A KOTM TO KGBG
LINE.

ON FRIDAY...FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS TO
THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

IN LOOKING AT THERMAL PROFILES OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE IS A STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR COOLING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THUS TEMPERATURES
MAY ACTUALLY FALL WHEN THE RAIN BEGINS ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY...IT
IS WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A RAIN/SNOW MIX MIGHT
DEVELOP IN THE STRONGEST FORCING FRIDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...
THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE SOUTH OF AN KOTM TO KVYS LINE.

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT ON...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING/MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF DUBUQUE. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A COLD RAIN BUT A MIX MAY DEVELOP IN THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EAST OF DUBUQUE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL
STORM SYSTEMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE THE
STORMS WILL TRACK AND THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS.

AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE. NEARBY
MDCRS AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATED
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK...GOING FROM AROUND 15 KTS AT THE
SURFACE TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 KTS AROUND 1500 FT AGL. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR OR SHARP VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCLUDE LLWS IN THE TAFS.

THE ADVANCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS THU MORNING...
AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CIGS HIGHER THAN WHAT THE TOO MOIST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR...WHICH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SHEETS







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