Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182228
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 PM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A TURN TOWARD
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOSED LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER COLORADO AND MOVING EASTWARD. SO FAR
TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN HOW DRY THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS EXCEPTED TO BE...ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY
VIRGA WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE HUNDREDTHS RANGE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN ARIZONA
WILL BE IN FOR A ROUND OF COOLING TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE 24 HOURS. ISOLATED HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR VERY
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA
FROM THE WEST WITH A TREND TOWARDS UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH FAIR
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS STARTING ON THURSDAY.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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