Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020500 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1200 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...NOCTURNAL STRATUS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY.

SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL PREVENT
ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. FWS VWP SHOWING
50-60KTS AT 2-4KFT AGL. VWP DATA FROM GRK IS CLOSER TO 40KTS AT
THIS HOUR. ALTHOUGH MVFR STRATUS IS STILL SOUTH OF TEMPLE/KILLEEN
AT THIS TIME...THE SPEED OF THE WIND WITHIN THE LLJ SHOULD ASSURE
A RAPID NORTHWARD SURGE BY ADVECTION ALONE. EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS INTO WACO AROUND 06Z OR SOON THEREAFTER...AND
INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 09Z (4 AM CDT). THE STRATUS WILL
STEADILY LIFT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WITH A STRONG INVERSION IN
PLACE...IT MAY TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO SCATTER OUT.

ALTHOUGH A DRYLINE WILL APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE CAP WILL LIKELY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OR OTHERWISE LIMIT COVERAGE.

STRATUS WILL RETURN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND MID-MORNING
FRIDAY...WHICH IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE 06Z DFW TAF.

25

&&

.UPDATE...
A QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REGARDING STORM
CHANCES FOR TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE CAPE ALOFT WITHIN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE /-10 TO -30 DEG C LAYER/ REMAINS 400-500 J/KG. WILL
CARRY 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST
OF AN EASTLAND-MINERAL WELLS-GAINESVILLE LINE FOR THIS EVENING...
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SLIGHT
CHANCES WILL BE HELD ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING LIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY...SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH REMAINS
FOR NOW WITH ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET
OR INTO MID EVENING. AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND...LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD START TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ANY RISK FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD WANE
WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS AND LARGER SCALE LIFT MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE 10 PM NEWS IF TRENDS
DICTATE THAT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN THE FORECAST.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE HAS LIMITED ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ACTIVITY /AND
OUTSIDE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER/ ARE NOW EXPERIENCING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE AS COOLER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AIDS IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EAST TO NEAR THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD INSTABILITY IS BEING
ADVERTISED IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A
STRONG CAP WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION. WE WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS ALONG I-35 NORTH OF I-20
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL EXIST. LOW TO MID 90S TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE VEERED WINDS
AND DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE.

THE FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN SEASONABLY COOL AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AT THE
SURFACE MONDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFIES IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH. CHANCES
OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF
THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WE
WILL GET A BETTER LOOK AT THE FORECAST ELEMENTS AS WE HEAD
THROUGH EASTER WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  86  67  74  47 /  20  20  20  20   5
WACO, TX              66  84  67  77  48 /  30  10  10  30   5
PARIS, TX             64  79  65  72  42 /  30  20  20  30   5
DENTON, TX            66  84  66  74  44 /  20  20  20  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  81  66  73  44 /  20  20  20  20   5
DALLAS, TX            67  84  67  75  47 /  20  20  20  20   5
TERRELL, TX           65  82  67  74  45 /  30  20  20  30   5
CORSICANA, TX         65  81  66  76  47 /  30  10  10  30   5
TEMPLE, TX            66  83  66  77  48 /  30  10  10  30   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     65  90  66  74  45 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/05


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