Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 271610
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1010 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE EAGLE VALLEY THEREFORE I HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONE 8 TO EXPIRE. I ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATER TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

A FEW AREAS HAVE REPORTED FOG THIS MORNING...WITH KEGE DOWN TO
LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE HAVE HOISTED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EAGLE/GYPSUM AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...IT
APPEARS THAT THIS DENSE FOG IS NOT ALL THAT EXTENSIVE. BUT FELT A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
FOG FOR OTHER AREAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM AROUND RIFLE TO
WEST OF GRAND JUNCTION...AND ALONG THE LOWER GUNNISON AND
UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER VALLEYS DID NOT DEVELOP AS WAS EXPECTED. SO
DROPPED MENTION OF FOG IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

THE CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST FOCUS WILL BE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS AGAIN POSSIBLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY DAYS WITH THE WARMEST
DAYS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. MANY OF THE DESERT VALLEYS WILL REACH
THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN WESTERLIES STAY NORTH
OF COLORADO...ALTHOUGH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTH OF THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER ON FRIDAY. SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE WESTERN
SLOPE HIGH COUNTRY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MOSTLY "HUGGING" THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ALTHOUGH BRIEF SHOWERS MAY DRIFT OVER THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

STABLE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH RELATIVELY LOW CIGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST
VARIABILITY WILL BE AT SKI COUNTRY TAF SITES WHERE OCCASIONAL
-SHRA IS EXPECTED WITH CIGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS. SOME SHOWERS
OVER WRN COLORADO WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED WITH POOR VISIBILITY AT MOUNTAIN
TOP.

SHOWERS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
EASTERN UTAH WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...MPM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF


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