Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 041923
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KGYX
323 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE EAST WITH CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IT`LL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT PRESSES QUICKLY TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA BY END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. A GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUNSHINE AND OFFSHORE
WIND WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME MOUNTAIN SECTIONS CLOSE TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL UNDER WEAK RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE E MID WEEK ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO RETURN
NWD INTO THE AREA. IN GENERAL THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MILD TEMPS AND FAIR WX LOOK TO BE THE NORM
THRU FRI.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND THE FORECAST IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. THIS
IS DUE PRIMARILY TO WARM FRONT LINGERING IN THE AREA. SMALL SHIFT
IN GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME RANGE COULD MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
SENSIBLE WX. ANY HIGH PRES ROLLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL
TEND TO SEND THE FRONT RETREATING SWWD. WHETHER THIS STOPS AT
KBGR...KBDL...OR BEYOND IS THE REASON FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW
A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HINTS AT A NW TO SE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW...WITH DETAILS TO
BE IRONED OUT AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS
A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA WILL BE WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...BRIEF MVFR PSBL TONIGHT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE EXTENDED.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AS A
WARM FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP AROUND THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS/SEAS TO REACH MINIMUM SCA
CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME. CONDITIONS DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. THERE IS SOME SIGNS FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHICH IS IT WERE TO DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS IS VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.A WARM SOUTHWEST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH... WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS... COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS... WILL CREATE MARGINAL RED FLAG WARNING
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. ANYONE CONSIDERING OUTSIDE BURNING
SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AS WELL AS LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE BURNING.

GIVEN PROJECTED WIND AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FINE FUEL CONDITIONS... WE`VE POSTED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-
     012>014.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>009-
     011-012-015.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR NHZ001>009-011-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.

&&

$$

SCHWIBS/LEGRO



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