Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281047
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
647 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEFORE EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE
WARMING AND THINNING THIS MORNING.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE INCREASES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE INTO THIS EVE WILL
SLOWLY BE DISLODGED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT AS IT TURNS NORTHEAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO A MORE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB FROM LESS THAN A HALF INCH TODAY TO AROUND 1 INCH LATE
TONIGHT.

CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY ON...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN
WITH THE BULK OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR S
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THICK CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK TO THE N THIS EVE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND THIS
EVE. HOWEVER...AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS...LASTLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT FROM SW TO NE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE DAYBREAK
WED WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG AND SW OF A LINE FROM GEO TO KINGSTREE
TO TIMMONSVILLE WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT IN POPS TO THE NE OF THIS
LINE...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD AS YOU MOVE UP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
AREA. DUE TO THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN INITIALLY...DO NOT EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST ZONES PRIOR TO 12Z WED.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...WELL BELOW
NORMAL. NOT AS CHILLY AS RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S WITH UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...A WET AND COOL MID WEEK PERIOD COMING UP.
GULF COAST LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AFTER REACHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA WED AFTN. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE EARLY WED WITH LIGHT NE FLOW..BUT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO SHARPEN
A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE SFC LOW MOVES
NE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN WITH ENHANCED N-NE COOL SFC FLOW WHILE WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENHANCING WEDGE
INLAND AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED
INTO WED EVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
WITH GREATEST QPF WED AFTN.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE UP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE LOW ON A FARTHER
EASTWARD TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS ON WED AND KEEP IT WEAKER
OVERALL REMAINING SLOWER WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE
UPPER MID WEST ON THURS. BUT STILL COUNTING ON A GOOD DEAL OF PCP
OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WED AFTN WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM DECENT
DYNAMICS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. LIFT WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
WED AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY AND A DEEPER NW FLOW SETS UP ON BACK
END OF LOW. EXPECT DRYING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
COLUMN WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES MAY BRIGHTEN WITH SOME DRYING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ON
THURS BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF PCP WILL COME AS POTENT MID TO UPPER
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER ON THURS.

EXPECT TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON WED...AND MAY NOT MAKE IT PAST
60 IN SPOTS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. THURS WILL RETURN TOWARD 70S IN
PLACES AS CLOUDS THIN OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...POTENT LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRI WITH A DEEP N-NW FLOW ON THE BACK END BRINGING IN PLENTY OF
DRY AIR. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OR PCP EARLY FRI WILL DIMINISH AS
COLUMN DRIES OUT. PCP WATER VALUES WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF
INCH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND EXITING LOW. HEIGHTS AS LOW
AS 545 FRI MORNING WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH AIR MASS MODIFYING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS
REACHING BACK UP TOWARD NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AS RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL BRING TEMPS UP AROUND 80 BY SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
GIVE US SOME HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PERHAPS BEING REPLACED WITH A
EASTERLY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON. THICKENING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIP WILL PROBABLY
START AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
A UPPER LOW PASSES. VFR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...THE LAST OF THE NORTHERLY SURGES WAS
QUICKLY WANING THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
HIGHEST THIS MORNING...SUSTAINED UP TO 10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO
3 TO 4 FT. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WIND
DIRECTION VEERS FROM N TO NE. LIGHT WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH AN E WIND UP TO 10
TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BY MORNING. SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVE WILL BEGIN TO TREND HIGHER WED MORNING.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL
CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN IN THE CAROLINAS AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH ON SHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KT EARLY WED INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WILL
PUSH SEAS UP FROM 2 TO 4 FT UP TO 3 TO 5 FT AND SHOULD SEE BRIEF
PERIOD LATE WED UP TO 6 TO 7 FT IN STRONGER E-NE WINDS AS GRADIENT
BECOMES PINCHED...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS.

AS LOW MOVES UP THE COAST WINDS WILL BACK BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AND THEN NW HEADING THROUGH THURS AND WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15
KT. THE WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP TO 2 TO
4 FT MOST WATERS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
NW FLOW DEVELOPS ON BACK END. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FRI MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN CAA THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT OFF SHORE FLOW WILL KEEP GREATEST
SEAS UP TO 5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL


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