Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 260452
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...FOG IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT LCH AND WILL SOON MOVE
INTO THE OTHER TERMINALS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE AREA. LFT MAY PROVE TO BE THE BEST ALTERNATE
WITH MVFR TO IFR VIS. OTHERWISE VLIFR APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES. SHOULD SEE VFR BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOST INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM AS ALL EARLIER
CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. PRIMARY CHANGE
WAS TO THROW IN A PATCHY FOG MENTION OVERNIGHT AS LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH REASONABLE RADIATING CONDITIONS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...A FINE FINISH TO A ROUGH START OF THE DAY AS A WEAK
TROF AND TRAILING DRY LINE STALLED NEAR LUFKIN. A LIGHT GRADIENT
WITH THE MOIST AXIS IN PLACE WILL BE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND FOR
FOG TNITE. POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR LATE TNITE AT AEX AND LCH, LIFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FINALLY STARTING TO GET IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE
PASSES. STILL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAMERON EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PARISHES AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE FOR SUNDAY AS THE
PATTERN RE-LOADS AND TROUGH DIGS BACK IN OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR
NEAR 90 DEGREES.

SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. SO ONE DAY OF REST AND WE
WILL BE BACK AT IT ONCE AGAIN. ALSO GOOD SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
EVENT AS WELL.

DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES STILL FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA IN SOME
FORM A MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
A MDT SLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRES
EAST OF THE REGION AND A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE AREA. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL
KEEP A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA...IT WILL INDUCE
SFC LOW PRES OVER TX. THIS LOW WILL THEN CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE
STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...RAIN
CHCS WILL COME TO AN END...WITH MODT TO STRONG NLY WINDS
DEVELOPING POSSIBLY BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

27

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  90  65  78 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  70  85  70  81 /  10  10  20  60
LFT  70  89  71  81 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  70  86  71  81 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


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