Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 042027
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
327 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ONGOING THINKING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND EXPECT TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

OUTSIDE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH...THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE
DOMINATED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF SOUTH AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...IN THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-
LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. OVERALL...EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL
TURN MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL INTRODUCE INCREASING OMEGA AND
RESULTANT LIFT TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY. THE INITIAL FEATURE ON SATURDAY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...AND
ONLY EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
DAY. A MUCH STRONGER FEATURE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL
SLIDE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE AMPLE
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE A MIX OF SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE OVER WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO GREATEST.

ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FOUR CORNER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. HAVE WENT WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE DAY TO REFLECT THE INCREASED FORCING THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ALOFT...AND OVERALL
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS DAY WILL ALSO HAVE THE
HIGHEST THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFLECTED IN A RATHER HEALTHY CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE AREA. A NARROW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TUESDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE...BUT WINDS APPEAR TO STAY
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 KNOTS AT MOST TERMINALS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG
FROM FORMING. POPS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TERMINALS ON TUESDAY. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OF BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS WILL
IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET IN
THESE OUTER WATERS. NEARER TO SHORE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION FLAGS ARE OUT FOR TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THEN LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THE FLOW WILL FALL TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL ALSO DROP TO 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  83  60  84 /  10  10   0  20
BTR  63  84  62  84 /  30  10  10  20
ASD  63  82  62  83 /  20  10   0  10
MSY  67  82  66  83 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  65  81  64  82 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  61  82  59  83 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ570-572-575-
     577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$

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