Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 260755
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
355 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SPIN IN THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY...REACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

AS OF 07Z...1000MB SFC LOW OFF CAPE HATTERAS WHICH IS RIDING A ZONAL
SRN STREAM JET THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SRN CONUS. AN UPR LOW
CENTER PERSISTS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...BUT AN UPR TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TO
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPR TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY. THE EFFECT FOR TODAY IS A SHUNTING OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT (CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL VA) SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA AS A COLD FRONT.

A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP HAS OVERSPREAD THE SWRN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 30S THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
FREEZING LAYER IS AROUND 9KFT...SO THIS IS PLAIN RAIN. SRN HALF OF
THE CWA HAS A CHANCE FOR RAIN (CATEGORICAL SOUTH OF CHARLOTTESVILLE)
WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH.

TODAY...RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. NLY FLOW 5
UP TO 10 MPH WITH CLOUDY SKIES BREAKING WITH LATE MORNING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BEFORE STRATOCU REDEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MOIST
SFC. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY HIGHER TO THE NORTH WHERE MORE SUN IS
EXPECTED. LOW 60S NORTH...UPR 50S FOR SWRN ZONES GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
FROM THE DEPARTING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...NORTH WIND INCREASES 10 TO 15 MPH LATE WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS THE ZONAL UPR TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
MIN TEMPS UPR 30S NW OF BALT-WASH CORRIDOR AND WEST OF BLUE
RIDGE...LOW TO MID 40S REST OF THE AREA. DRY.

MONDAY...UPR TROUGH FROM LOW OFF MAINE SLIDES INTO THE AREA.
GENERALLY INSTABILITY WITH ISO/SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SNOW FLAKES ABOVE ABOUT 2500 FT
ELEVATION. WENT A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW MAV/MET/GMOS BLEND DUE TO
EXPECTED CLOUDS. BREEZY NWLY FLOW 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CONDS SHOULD BE IMPRVG MON NGT INTO TUE AS INDUCED HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE MID ATLC BEHIND THE DEPARTING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN
THE GULF OF ME. BRZY CONDS XPCTD MON NGT/TUE. SKIES SHOULD BE ON
THE IMPRV DURG THIS TIME...W/ M SUN XPCTD TUE. LOW PRES TRACKING
ACROSS THE GULF STATES WED MAY SPREAD CLDS INTO THE MID ATLC BUT
POP CHCS WL BE LOW - BEST IN THE CENTRAL SHEN VLLY. ONCE THE LOW
REACHES THE SE CST IT IS XPCTD TO TRACK SLOWLY NE TOWARD HAT THU.
THIS WL BRING ABT A BETTER CHC FOR RA TO THE FCST AREA. QPF WOULD
BE LOW.

THE WK AHD WL SEE HIGH TEMPS AOB THE L70 LATE APR CLIMO NORMS.
LOOKING DEEP INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL IT LOOKS LK WARMING COULD OCCUR
THE FOLLOWING WK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AREA OF RAIN SPREADS EAST TO THE SOUTH OF DC METROS THIS
MORNING...CONTINUED IFR CONDS FOR KCHO THROUGH SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES
SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING...ALSO SKIES BREAK FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTH WINDS 5-10KT TODAY...INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KT LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING NW MONDAY 15 KT GUST 20 TO 25 KT.

HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA MON NGT THRU WED. NO CONCERNS XPCTD
AVIATION-WISE. LOW PRES TRACKING TO THE S MAY CAUSE DEGRADATION IN
CIGS THU.

&&

.MARINE...

NORTH FLOW CONTINUED 7-12KT OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...15
KT LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW LATE TONIGHT
AND INCREASE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY 15-20 KT WITH 25 KT
GUSTS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY CONDS LKLY MON NGT AND TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!


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