Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 251915
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
215 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER FINALLY EXITING THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING MOST OF ARKANSAS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO WARM RAPIDLY AS CLOUDS DEPARTED...ALLOWING DRY AIR
ALOFT TO MIX DOWN WITH THE STRONG W/SW WINDS IN PLACE. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM CDT WILL BE LEFT INTACT AS
AREA WIDE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ATTM WILL
MOVE SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD STRATUS
TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST
INITIALLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN H500
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES AND CUTTING OFF BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
RAINFALL QUICKLY TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE
SURFACE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OVERALL THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS RATHER UNEVENTFUL WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A FAIRLY WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE. TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND AT THIS
POINT...AND ONLY EXPECTING OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WITH THIS DEPARTING
SYSTEM. GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
THE ECMWF ONLY HINTS AT THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS...UPPER RIDGING
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  68  49  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         59  84  57  70 /   0  10  30  40
HARRISON AR       53  67  47  63 /  10  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  78  54  66 /   0  10  30  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  75  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     61  81  57  70 /  10  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      56  79  54  65 /   0  10  30  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  68  47  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        56  68  49  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     60  77  55  68 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  76  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         57  71  51  66 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      59  74  53  67 /  10  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...226 / LONG TERM...56




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