Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210734
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK COOL FRONT FORECAST TO CLEAR CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY AND STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BUILDS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEST
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. NO SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TO THE AIR MASS AS FLAT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FEEDS IN
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE VEERING LOW
LEVEL WIND PULLS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AS MID LEVEL IMPULSES
STREAMING WEST TO EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL(250MB) JET REMAINING TO
THE NORTH KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CHURNED UP. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES...40
TO 50 PERCENT... TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SOUTHBOUND FRONT
TAPERING OFF TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT FROM SOUTH LAKE ORANGE AND NORTH
BREVARD COUNTIES NORTH. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE MID 60S
NORTH TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTH.

MID TO LATE WEEK...THIS PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK WL BE MARKED BY A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. PSG OF MINOR
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN UPR FLOW COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND HEATING WL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY
FOCUSED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WED-THU WITH DECREASING CHCS FRI-SAT AS
A TRANSITORY RIDGE OVER THE GULF BUILDS EWD OVER THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAGGING ACROSS THE SE STATES WL BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHC LATE SAT INTO SUN.

EXTENDED...THE FINAL WEEK OF APRIL SHOWS PROMISE FOR MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHCS TO STAT THE WEEK WITH UPSTREAM HGHTS FALLS ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE GULF AND A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN DUE TO
WEAK/STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR THE AREA AND LACK OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN-OVC120-250. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE AND SUNSET. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND
STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTH TO KTIX...KSFB...KLEE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT NEAR THE AREA WL CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS TO
10 KNOTS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

MID TO LATE WEEK...FAVORABLE CONDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS ARE INDICATED
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW VEERING TO AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT
THU-FRI. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WED-THU AND INCREASING A FOOT OR
SO BY FRI WITH ENTRANCE OF A SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  64  85  69 /  10  10  20  20
MCO  85  68  89  69 /  10  20  40  30
MLB  84  69  85  71 /  10  20  30  30
VRB  83  67  85  69 /  30  30  40  30
LEE  84  68  87  70 /  10  10  30  20
SFB  84  66  88  70 /  10  10  30  20
ORL  85  68  89  71 /  10  20  30  30
FPR  84  68  85  69 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST


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