Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 210736
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
IN THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS..BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE GFS KEEPS PRECIP GOING BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING BEING WEAK...THE NAM IS
PREFERED. THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE
EVENING...AND THE FAVORED PRECIP AREA SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL END POPS
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ENDING THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AFTER A BRIEF DRY SPELL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM AND
MOIST AIR WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ALONG
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY SATURDAY...A SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL AIRMASS. TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT YET ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THE
TREND TOWARD TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
SPRING WITH THE AIRMASS SOURCE REGION REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  48  73  52 /   0  10  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  67  46  70  46 /   0  10  40  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  45  69  47 /   0  10  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  40  68  45 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99



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