Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260417 AAC
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1217 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TODAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR MIDNIGHT UPDATE.

PREVIOUS...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT...AND EXIT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN NEAR AND SOUTH OF I 70 INTO EASTERN OH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND DIMINISH AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
ERODES THE MOISTURE...AND THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS.
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN WV/MD TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S...AND MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE
SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THERE THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE LATEST LAMP NUMBERS.

SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY UNDER BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING...WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS REGION INTO MONDAY...SLIGHT TO
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED AND ADDED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL CRITICAL THICKNESS SHOWS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX
IN RIDGES AND FAR NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY...BUT COOL TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WERE FORECAST USING A
BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS...WHICH WAS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK...SO COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP...ALBEIT SMALL...IS PROJECTED FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
PROJECTIONS OF A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PHASING INTO THAT TROUGH.
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS WPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL VFR FORECAST AS AREA OF MID DECK MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. MID DECK WILL CLEAR SOUTHERN PORTS AROUND DAWN...
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS TAKING PLACE OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT SCT-BKN VFR CU TO DEVELOP. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CLOCK AT AROUND 8 T0 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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