Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 020446 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
945 PM PDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING FROM HWY 50
NORTH TO NEAR SUSANVILLE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND WAS NOTED WELL BY EARLIER HRRR AND NAM RUNS. FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS HAVE LIMITED PRECIP AMOUNTS THUS FAR THOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW MIX DOWN TO ~5000 FT. GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WANE OF THE SHOWER
COVERAGE PAST MIDNIGHT BUT HAVE CONTINUED SCATTERED-ISOLATED
COVERAGE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. AS TEMPS COOL, COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FT ON BRIDGES AND NON-PAVED
SURFACES. SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WARMER DAYS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COLD AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM WITH THE INITIAL FEATURE
OF INTEREST A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-80. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE JUST
NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG A PORTOLA TO LOVELOCK LINE FROM
8-MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING. IT IS HERE WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LIE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 TONIGHT.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH AND A BIT BREEZY WITH SOME
BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE OFF THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINKS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95. THESE NORTH WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR ACROSS
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY. A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WIDESPREAD 20S ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH TEENS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND IN
PARTS OF PERSHING COUNTY. THESE WILL BE THE COLDEST LOWS WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE EARLY MARCH.

SOME RIDGING FRIDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL BE BREEZY AND MILD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. AT THIS
POINT, WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND A MODERATE SURFACE
GRADIENT, PEAK GUSTS LOOK TO BE 35-45 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND
WESTERN NV. ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND ITS EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A COLDER PATTERN WITH RAIN AND SNOW
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT
THE REGION, THE FIRST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SYSTEM IN THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE ARE LOOKING TO BE TYPICAL
SPRING SEASON CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS THAT WILL PROVIDE A SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WHICH COULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4,000-5,000 FEET.
AS SUCH, THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS.

MAIN CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WERE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC ARE NOW
SHOWING SOLID AGREEMENT. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DIG THIS SYSTEM
FARTHER SOUTH PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO BIG MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BUT SOME
PRELIMINARY LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD LOWER
BELOW 5,000 FEET WHICH MAY PRESENT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS SUNDAY WHERE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED
SUNDAY AS ROAD TEMPERATURES AND APRIL SUN ANGLE MAY LIMIT ROADWAY
ACCUMULATIONS. NONETHELESS WET AND SLICK ROADWAYS SEEM LIKELY.

SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A BREAK BETWEEN
THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SIERRA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BUT AGAIN NO BIG MOISTURE TAP IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS LOW. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS RUN CONSISTENCY,
ENSEMBLE SPREADS, AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IS ONLY NOW
SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT. AT THIS POINT THE TAKE AWAY WOULD BE THAT
THIS SHOULD BE ANOTHER COLDER SYSTEM WHICH MAY PROVIDE SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY WHICH MAY CREATE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. 700 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO BE IN THE -7C TO -9C RANGE WHICH CLOUD KEEP SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 5,000 FEET.

INCREASED WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS WITH SOME
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER PERIODS OF WIND LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS EACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.
FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15% CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER ACROSS KRNO AND KCXP. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY ACT
TO REINFORCE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS EXPECTED. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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