Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 061602
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1102 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN ACROSS EXTREME NE TX AND SE OK OVER THE
PAST HOUR WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHWRS TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST SOUTH
OF LFK AS THEY DRIFT NWRD. SO FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION.
FARTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF N LA AND S AR...SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE BUT DO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
FILL IN OVER THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS SPREADING
FARTHER EAST AS WELL SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR LATER TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ALSO UPDATED WINDS
WITH NEW BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE HOWEVER AND THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR AND/OR
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS MAINLY OUR NE TX TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ANY
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME VFR ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING AND/OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. HAVING SAID THAT...MAY
HAVE TO PREVAIL OR AT LEAST TEMPO SOME -SHRA IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS MAINLY NE TX THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO AWAIT DAYTIME HEATING WITH VCTS LIKELY
THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS.

EXPECTING A PREDOMINANTLY SSE WIND AGAIN TODAY WITH SPEEDS NEAR
8-12KTS. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE
TX TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE TXK/SHV TERMINALS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A PERSISTENCE
PATTERN...RINSE AND REPEAT...A BROKEN RECORD.

NEGATIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD THROUGH OK/KS. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM THIS TROUGH HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF OK. SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER...CONVECTION IS MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
UNTIL YOU REACH PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX EAST OF AUSTIN. SHWRS/TSTMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THEY APPROACH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
TODAY WILL BE NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK/SW AR CLOSER TO THE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES COOLER IF THE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP PERSIST.

THROUGH SATURDAY...SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND SELY FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS
WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OK/TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS OVERHEAD. THESE SHWRS/TSTMS COULD THEN MOVE
INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HRS EACH DAY.
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

THE OVERALL FORECAST IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN SIMILAR DURING THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF ANOTHER LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES AND EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO GRADUALLY PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INCREASED CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINS. COOLER TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20 AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE GULF COAST.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  66  85  69 /  30  10  20  20
MLU  84  65  86  66 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  80  65  82  66 /  40  20  30  30
TXK  82  66  84  68 /  30  10  30  20
ELD  84  66  86  66 /  10  10  20  10
TYR  83  67  83  69 /  30  20  30  20
GGG  84  66  83  69 /  30  20  30  20
LFK  84  68  86  70 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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