Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251727

1227 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Latest water vapor satellite loop at 08Z shows the upper low over
northeast Kansas. Regional radar loop shows precipitation
circulating around the low centered over the Washington and Marshall
county border. Rather broad swath of showers and thunderstorms
around the upper low. Expect a period of showers and thunderstorms
to persist in the deformation zone as the upper low slowly moves off
to the east through the day. Will maintain chances of showers and
isolated thunderstorms this morning then across the northeast
through the afternoon hours. Short range high resolution models as
well as the ARW and NMM support the above thinking with
precipitation gradually ending from southwest to northeast through
the day. Expect skies to remain mostly cloudy through the day with
with winds becoming northerly with the passage of the surface low.
High pressure over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes
region will keep winds from the east this evening and overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest that there may be a few breaks in the
overcast early this evening otherwise expect mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies through the night. Highs today will range from near 60 in the
far northeast to the lower 70s near central and southeast Kansas.
Lows tonight cool into the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

Easterly flow over the lower few thousand feet Sunday deepens well
through the troposphere late Sunday into Monday as the upper trough
over the west coast cuts off from the stronger westerlies, staying
well south of the local area as it comes southeast. Rather moist low
levels to start Sunday, though persistent dry air advection from
deep ridging to the northeast should allow stratus to dissipate by
early Sunday afternoon. Will likely see fairly significant cirrus
for much of Sunday night through Monday night with southwest winds
remaining at this level, but still enough mixing for highs in the
low to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday, and keeping lows above
frost concern levels these nights. A weak northern branch wave
drops an even weaker front into the Central Plains around Tuesday
night with little if any change in sensible weather. The
dominating northern branch keeps shortwaves well north of the area
through the end of the week with modifying temps and no
appreciable precipitation chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MVFR cigs in place should persist through the afternoon at all
TAF sites with cigs mainly between 2k and 3k feet. Some potential
for brief periods of scattering, but a good chance for persistent
ceilings. Expect a decrease closer to 1200 feet around 00Z, and
further decrease into IFR ceiling heights by late evening with
some variation possible from the forecast 04Z-05Z time frame. IFR
cigs, and potential minor vis restrictions, will persist through
the end of the TAF, with a chance for 2-4 hours of LIFR cigs
around 12Z (although not included in the TAF at this time).




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