Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 062013
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
D3/FRI PERIOD WILL MIGRATE SEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
D4/SAT...THEN NEWD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY D5/SUN AS
MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND EWD TO NEW
ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON D4/SAT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS IN A BROAD AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ELEVATING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN CONUS. A SFC RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS NORTH OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW FROM D4/SAT THROUGH D6/MON...EVENTUALLY RESULTING AN A
SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH
D6/MON. MEANWHILE...A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.

BEYOND D6/MON...PREDICTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE.

...D3/FRI: ERN AZ AND NM...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE ENHANCED SURFACE FLOW
FROM 20 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS A
BROAD AREA FROM NERN AZ EWD TO FAR W TX. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...FOSTERING MIN RH VALUES FROM 9-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
NM...FAR SE AZ...AND FAR W TX. EXTENSIVE RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN PARTS
OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND W TX. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR UNRECEPTIVE
FUELS DUE TO ANTECEDENT RAINS...A 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY
AREA/CRITICAL DESIGNATION WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE
40 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA REPRESENTS GREATEST CONFIDENCE THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN AREAS WITH
DRYING/RECEPTIVE FUELS.

...D3/FRI: FL PENINSULA...
SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE SC COAST WILL PROMOTE WARMING/DRYING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND 25 PERCENT... 10-15 MPH WLY
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AND A LACK OF WIDESPREAD ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA D3/FRI AFTERNOON.

...D4/SAT: SRN AND ERN NM AND FAR WRN TX...
AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
D4/SAT...A SUBSTANTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR WITH
25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND FAR
WRN TX. AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 10-15 PERCENT IN PARTS
OF THE AREA WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ANTECEDENT RAINS IN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT...THUS PRECLUDING
GREATER FIRE WEATHER PROBABILITIES FOR THIS FORECAST.

...D5/SUN: SWRN TX...
ALTHOUGH A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...SURFACE
WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AS SURFACE
CYCLONE LIFTS SLOWLY NWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...VERY LOW
RH AND SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IN PARTS OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION. NO AREAL
DELINEATION OF A 40 PERCENT AREA WILL BE MADE FOR THIS FORECAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WINDS AND FUELS...BUT THE REGION WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

..COOK/GLEASON.. 05/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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