Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 300824
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
06Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST STATES...MOVING OFFSHORE AROUND 03Z/TUE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIRST...MOVING SEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES. UPPER RIDGING -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NRN CA
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA -- WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY...
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MO
VALLEY AS DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS RESULT IN A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MIN RH VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO NEAR 25
PERCENT IN IA. THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH...RESULTING IN WEAK WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. SWLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
AREAS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO IA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME DISSOCIATION BETWEEN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES/LOWEST RH VALUES
-- AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE -- AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS -- NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS IA -- WITHIN THIS REGION. ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY BUT THE
DISSOCIATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
THE LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A THREAT
AREA WITH THIS FORECAST.

IN CONTRAST TO AREAS FARTHER S...SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED E OF THE MID MO VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN NWLY
WINDS. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND
AT LEAST MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS AMIDST WARM
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

..MOSIER.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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