Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FNUS73 KEAX 141732
FWSEAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CASTLE -- UPDATED...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATE: SKIES HAVE CLEARED MORE THAN EXPECTED ALLOWING FOR DEEPER
MIXING RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS AND A LARGER TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT
SPREAD/ LOWER RH VALUES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS CHANGE IN CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA. THESE SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
KEEPING FIRE CHANCES LOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE EVERYDAY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUING TO KEEP
FIRE DANGER LOW.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 20 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........54  51  49  52  57  65
WEATHER COV.....                ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....                RW  RW
TEMP............66  66  67  67  66  64
RH..............32  30  28  27  29  33
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..14  12  12  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.20  15  15      10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........83 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.40 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 14 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM
SKY (%).........64  73  80  83  85  88  90  92  95  96  96  96
WEATHER COV.....ISO CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............62  58  57  55  55  54  54  53  52  52  51  50
RH..............41  59  63  65  66  66  67  70  73  76  79  83
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MISSING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........96  97  98  98  98  97  96  95  92  90  88  85
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............50  51  53  56  58  60  61  62  63  64  64  64
RH..............87  85  79  74  71  70  69  67  66  65  66  67
20 FT WIND DIR..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.            10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...BOWMAN
REQUESTED BY...DEON STEINLE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150414.CASTL.02/EAX





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