Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
000
FNUS71 KRNK 061103
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOWER MOUNTAIN CAMPGROUND RX...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS QUITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONS TRENDING
MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LIKELY TO STAY JUST WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT
WHILE VENTILATION RATES ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 33,500
BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD AGAIN MEAN LITTLE MIXING THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS DEVELOPING EARLY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY EARLIER RAINFALL MAY HAVE OCCURRED.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN SET THE
STAGE FOR ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO
                    8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............36     49     59
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       S CHC  S CHC
TEMP................78     80     81
RH..................45     43     44
20 FT WIND..........SE 4   E 5    E 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........3700   5200   5800
TRANSPORT WIND......E 6    E 8    SE 8
CWR.................10     20     20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............58     52     51     53     55     56
WEATHER COV.........S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............S CHC
TEMP................80     75     71     68     66     64
RH..................46     55     62     68     72     75
20 FT WIND..........E 4    E 3    SE 2   SE 2   S 1    S 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........3900   300    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SE 7   E 5    SE 2   SE 2   S 1    S 1
LVORI...............2      2      3      4      4      4
ADI.................18     3      1      1      1      0
CWR.................20     10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX........4      4      3      3      3      3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST 5 TO 6
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 17 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............57     53     50     47     45     44
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................62     65     69     72     75     76
RH..................81     70     59     52     48     48
20 FT WIND..........SE 1   NE 2   E 3    E 4    E 5    E 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    1600   2600   3400   3500
TRANSPORT WIND......SE 0   NE 2   E 13   E 17   E 14   E 14
CWR.................10     10     10     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...HUDGINS
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150506.LOWER.01/RNK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.