Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
ACUS03 KWNS 210724
SWODY3
SPC AC 210723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
AND NORTH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS...CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTRAL
ROCKIES...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SIERRA NEVADA.

...TX/LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR IN PLACE FROM CNTRL TX EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN SPITE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS COULD DEVELOP BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE FACTORS THAT CAN NOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS
TIME. THE MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN CNTRL AND NE TX.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO INITIATE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTING
FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS MCS FROM NE TX SEWD INTO CNTRL LA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/FRI AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH AND WACO SHOW
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND
MLCAPE NEAR 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD EASILY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z/FRI AT MONROE LA SHOW MLCAPE
NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 04/21/2015



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.