Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 201422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE WET PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL TRANSITION TO
A COOLER DRIER PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT
WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN CANADA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1021 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL AS MAJORITY OF
FORCING FOR RAINFALL SO DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THAT SAID THERE ARE STILL WEAK WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW
AND THIS COULD CONTINUE TO PROMPT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AS INDICATED IN THE HRRR. THUS MAINTAINED A 30
POP WITH SCATTERED SHOWER WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PULLED ANY
THUNDER MENTION WITH NO INSTABILITY WORTH MENTIONING AND WEAK
FORCING. CUT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER BASED ON
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS
OF 25-40 MPH WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

WHILE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WAS CONTINUED FOR TONIGHT...ADDED IN
SOME LIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. MUCH
LOWER TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT
NOW NOT THINKING FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS THE WESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRONG OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS WILL HAVE
ABATED BY 00Z TUE.

FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
LITTLE SHORT WAVES POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION. GENERALLY LEFT THE
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DRY BY WED NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD COOLER HIGHS AND WARMER
LOWS GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...SO
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM FROM ENTERING CENTRAL INDIANA. AS THAT SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THOUGH ON FRIDAY...SOME OF THAT MOISTURE
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION HIGHLIGHTS THE FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE
FROM THAT TREND. IT COINCIDES WELL WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO.

NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
LOWER SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION.../DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW A DEPARTING WAVE EXITING CENTRAL
INDIANA AND HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS ENDED. WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CIGS
UPSTREAM IMPROVE TO NEAR 20KFT AND FARTHER UPSTREAM IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS IS FOUND ACROSS ILLINOIS. WILL EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS
TO ADVECT TO THE IND TAF SITES BY MIDDLE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 20/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TAF SITES...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE MORNING. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS THOUGH UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THAT
POINT...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE WEST TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 12 TO 16 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 24 KTS...TAPERING OFF AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 24 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS...STILL OUT OF THE
WEST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

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