Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260924
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
524 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OF
INDIANA...AND WARMER AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WESTERN
ONTARIO. COOL NORTH WINDS WERE IN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES...PROVIDING
BLOCKING OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COOL NORTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
HIGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...THUS SOME
AFTERNOON CU CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL BE ONGOING TODAY...850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BY
00Z...WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3 HOURLY MAVMOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR
THIS PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN
PLAINS TO ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WEST OF INDIANA OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUE FLOW OF DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON NORTH WINDS.

THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD AND THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS.

DECENT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING
LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS
RATHER NEUTRAL TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR
0C-1C. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
MAVMOS...GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...AND TREND HIGHS ON MONDAY TOWARD
EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
SIMILAR...KEEPING WINDS NEAR 5-10 KNOTS AND SOME SLIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS AS THE COOLEST AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND 850MB
TEMPS RISE TOWARD 3-4C. THUS WILL BEGIN OUR GRADUAL WARM ON
STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRENDING LOWS AND HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. ONGOING MAVMOS HANDLES THIS
WELL. GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ON TUESDAY
WILL WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND ON LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISSUE THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHETHER RAIN MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
MIDWEEK BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY DRY.

COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
MIDWEEK ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE POSE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAIN NEGATING FACTOR
IS LIMITED MOISTURE GIVEN THE GULF BEING CUT OFF BY A SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL THUS KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

AS TENNESSEE VALLEY SYSTEM MOVES EAST THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION WHICH SPELLS CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND LATE WEEK
WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 260600Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

NO CHANGES MADE. VFR CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 FT AND 5000 FEET
STILL OVERHEAD BUT CLEARING EDGE NEAR KLAF TO KMIE LINE STILL
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND 261100Z TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL LOOKS
OK.

WINDS TO REMAIN ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDOWN.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

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