Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 200655 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE WET PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL TRANSITION TO
A COOLER DRIER PATTERN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT
WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN CANADA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

THE LAST BEST SHOT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND HEADED
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PROJECTED TO BEGIN CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
AROUND 4-5 AM THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE E/NE OVER THE COURSE OF THE REST OF THE DAY. THE MODELS
ACTUALLY ARE DIVERGING ON WHERE THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND END UP. THE GFS IS ESPECIALLY DRY...IT ONLY SHOWS THE
PRECIP MAKING IT INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA BEFORE EXITING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON..WHILE MOST OF THE
OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOW PRECIP COVERAGE EXPANDING TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CWA...POSSIBLE NOT THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES....BUT NOT NEARLY AS DRY AS THE GFS. BELIEVE THE SOLUTION
IS PROBABLY A BLEND OF THE TWO AND GENERALLY USED THIS AS GUIDE FOR
DRAWING IN THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.

LIKELY POPS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. HIGHEST POPS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES
FOR TODAY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS...DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS FOR TODAY EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS RANGING THE UPPER 50S (NW) TO LOW
60S (SE) APPEARS VERY REASONABLE STILL. QPF AMOUNTS THIS ROUND
MUCH LOWER THAN SUNDAY/S RAINFALL TOTALS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT THE
MOST 0.25" OR LESS FOR THE AREA. ESPECIALLY FAR ACROSS THE NW OF
THE CWA WHERE NOT AS MUCH PRECIP WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL.

ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL
MAKE FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THESE GUSTS WILL ABATE AROUND 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

WHILE A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST WAS CONTINUED FOR TONIGHT...ADDED IN
SOME LIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW EARLY THIS EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE DRY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. MUCH
LOWER TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT
NOW NOT THINKING FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS THE WESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRONG OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GUSTS WILL HAVE
ABATED BY 00Z TUE.

FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
LITTLE SHORT WAVES POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION. GENERALLY LEFT THE
FORECAST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN DRY BY WED NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD COOLER HIGHS AND WARMER
LOWS GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

ECMWF AND GFS SLOWLY MODIFY THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER THAN THIS PERIOD INTO MORE OF A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...GULF MOISTURE REMAINS AT BAY...CUT
OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE.

UPPER FLOW DOES ALLOW A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER,,,WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND BEST FORCING WELL SOUTH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWS AND
WILL ONLY USE SOME CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1239 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

COMBINATION OF RADAR AND RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROG SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI REACHES BMG...HUF AND IND. THIS
SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST OF IND AFTER 13Z. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER WAVE
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z AND COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS...BUT CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION.

CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT REGARDING FLYING CONDITIONS...BUT WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND MOST LOCAL AND UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING MVFR OR
IFR...WILL GO WITH MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT IFR OR
WORSE AT LAF AS CURRENT CONDITIONS THERE SUGGEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWER LEVELS DRY A BIT.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE EAST OF IND AND BMG BY 09Z. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...MK

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