Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 192027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE WET PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL TRANSITION TO A COOLER DRIER PATTERN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT WILL STALL OUT OVER EASTERN
CANADA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS ON POPS/TIMING OF RAIN. AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH INDIANA IT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FORCING FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...BUT HI
RES MODELS INDICATE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN CURRENT.
STILL MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON
RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING. INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
SOUTH OF I 70. COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
THE NIGHT UNTIL LATE. NEAR THE END OF THE NEAR TERM WILL SEE ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE APPROACH THE AREA AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWEST JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. FOR TEMPERATURES
WENT ABOVE WARMER MOS NUMBERS /FOR LOWS IN THE 50S/ AND CLOSER TO
THE RAW TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDS AND RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS FOR MONDAY THEN SHIFTS TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS WITH DEVIATIONS NOTED BELOW.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH BRINGING RAIN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA DURING MONDAY MORNING. THE WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN CHANCES TO COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA LOOKING DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME /MUCAPES ONLY AROUND A
HUNDRED OVER THE SOUTH/ SO WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
GUST AT AROUND 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY. TUESDAY COULD SEE EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS. FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW ANY LITTLE
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE MAIN BROADENING UPPER LOW. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES ON TUESDAY COULD STALL
OUT IN THE SOUTH AND THUS CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LEANED
TOWARD COOLER HIGHS AND WARMER LOWS GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

ECMWF AND GFS SLOWLY MODIFY THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA EARLIER THAN THIS PERIOD INTO MORE OF A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...GULF MOISTURE REMAINS AT BAY...CUT
OFF BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE.

UPPER FLOW DOES ALLOW A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO PUSH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER,,,WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE AND BEST FORCING WELL SOUTH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWS AND
WILL ONLY USE SOME CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 192100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

DELAYED WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST UNTIL 21Z PER TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE TAF PERIOD . WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER INDIANA AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES. MODELS INDICATE THAT BEST FORCING IS LOST BY
00Z...THUS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE EVENING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AMID THE PASSING LOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND
TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSING WITH
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON MONDAY MORNING...ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

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