Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 041648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA EARLY THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN
WARM AND BECOME MORE HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND THIS EVENING/...
ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THIS
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTS SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS REVOLVING AROUND INSTABILITY
MAKE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT A LITTLE MURKY.

BASED ON ABOVE...WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND DROP POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ALL
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO LOWER THE HIGHS TODAY A
CATEGORY BASED ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM AND PRECIPITATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TIMING WILL BE THE BIGGEST FOCUS TODAY
ALONG WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
WAS FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO WESTERN KANSAS. BLEND BRINGS THE FRONT
TO JUST NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO DODGE CITY LINE BY 12Z AND THEN TO
NEAR AN ANGOLA TO RENSSELAER LINE BY 00Z TONIGHT. ALL 00Z MODELS AND
THE RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALL SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTION AROUND JUST BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF A MUNCIE
TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH GOOD CHANCE THERE AND TAPERING OFF TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.

WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES TO 1000 J/KG OR SO WITHIN A BELT OF A 25 KNOT
850 MILLIBAR WINDS...MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE RISKS. UNI-DIRECTIONAL
WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRECLUDES A BIGGER RISK.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A FEW
BREAKS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S PER 00Z MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AND IF OR WHEN TO
PULL THEM.

COULD BE A LATE EVENING LULL IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT IT
SHOULD PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS
MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER WAVE MOVING OVERTOP THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL GO WITH
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT NORTH TO COVER THAT AND TAPER
TO NO POPS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERHAPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA IF OVERNIGHT STORM OUTFLOW
HAS ITS WAY. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT ANY FURTHER SOUTH
THOUGH...DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THEN...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MANITOBA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD DISSIPATE THE FRONT AS IT IS NUDGED NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH 00Z
MODELS CARRY SOME QPF AFTER TUESDAY...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA...PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT ON. MEANWHILE FOR TUESDAY...WILL CONFINE POPS TO NORTH
OF A GREENSBURG TO TERRE HAUTE LINE WITH THE BEST POPS NORTH OF
LAFAYETTE AND KOKOMO.

BESIDES AFTERNOON CU...SHOULD BE DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH STARTING TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY PER MODEL BLEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. WILL BE ABLE TO START THE PERIOD DRY BUT WILL REQUIRE
CHANCE POPS MOST PERIODS FROM AS EARLY AS FRIDAY ONWARD.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH
THE 80 DEGREE MARK LIKELY MOST DAYS. INITIALIZATION HANDLED THIS
WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
A SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PREDOMINANTLY THIN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES BY LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
CU FORMATION ALONG WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-70...BUT
WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT ALL SITES FROM 20-22Z THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS ALL HI-RES DATA CAPTURING LATE DAY CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT. COULD SEE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS AT
TIMES INTO EARLY EVENING.

INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLATED TO
ORGANIZE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING MIGRATES
INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATE
TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY SHIFTING NORTH OF BOTH
KHUF AND KIND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. IMPACTS AT KLAF HOWEVER MAY
LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN

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