Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261851
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER
ALONG WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS.

BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST OF
INDIANA...AND WARMER AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED MAINLY TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND CAPTURE
CLEARING TRENDS IN SKY GRIDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WESTERN
ONTARIO. COOL NORTH WINDS WERE IN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SHOWS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES...PROVIDING
BLOCKING OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE COOL NORTH FLOW AHEAD OF THE
HIGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A DRY COLUMN WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S...THUS SOME
AFTERNOON CU CAN BE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
THAT WILL BE ONGOING TODAY...850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 1C BY
00Z...WILL TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 3 HOURLY MAVMOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR
THIS PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN
PLAINS TO ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE COOL NORTH FLOW ALOFT
ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE WEST OF INDIANA OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUE FLOW OF DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON NORTH WINDS.

THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD AND THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS.

DECENT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST...KEEPING
LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REMAINS
RATHER NEUTRAL TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER NEAR
0C-1C. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
MAVMOS...GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES...AND TREND HIGHS ON MONDAY TOWARD
EXPECTED PERSISTENCE.

BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
SIMILAR...KEEPING WINDS NEAR 5-10 KNOTS AND SOME SLIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS AS THE COOLEST AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND 850MB
TEMPS RISE TOWARD 3-4C. THUS WILL BEGIN OUR GRADUAL WARM ON
STARTING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...TRENDING LOWS AND HIGHS
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. ONGOING MAVMOS HANDLES THIS
WELL. GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN ON TUESDAY
WILL WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW WARMING TREND ON LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

FIRST CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INCLUDE
SMALL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS MODELS BRING AN UPPER
WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING AS
SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A LOT OF
MOISTURE.

THE SECOND CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT TO INTRODUCE LATE
WEEKEND POPS AS EXTENDED MODELS BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT DRAWING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THEY ALSO HAVE WAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH A MODEST GREAT LAKES TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. THESE FACTORS SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE AT LEAST SMALL LATE WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEKEND
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP
TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S PER THE REGIONAL
BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND
850 MILLIBARS AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DID INCLUDE SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU AT 5K FEET OR ABOVE THROUGH 23Z.

NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WILL DROP TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 23Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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