Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250656
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 915 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT
AND SCATTERED UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHEN BETTER
ORGANIZED LIFT ARRIVES.

LOWS TONIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL AND THUNDER
POTENTIAL...AS THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE ROCKIES
UPPER TROUGH...AND SOON TO BE CLOSED UPPER LOW...WILL SPIN UP A
SURFACE LOW...AND THE TWO WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY AROUND DAYBREAK. ATTENDENT STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TO NEAR ST.
LOUIS AND PADUCAH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...DESPITE STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT AT 00Z TONIGHT...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY
BONE DRY. SO...ONLY SLOWLY INCREASED POPS FROM CHANCE SOUTHWEST TO
NOTHING NORTHEAST AT 00Z TO LIKELY SOUTHWEST HALF AND CHANCE
NORTHEAST HALF AT 06Z TO OCCASIONAL ACROSS ALL COUNTIES BY 12Z
SATURDAY. INSTABILITY PROGS KEEP IT STABLE ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SO...WILL MENTION ISOLATED STORMS ROUGHLY WEST
OF TERRE HAUTE TO BEDFORD LINE WITH NO STORM MENTION ELSEWHERE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
MIDDAY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. MODEL MIXED LAYER CAPES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
AT 18Z. MEANWHILE...UPPER 125 JET STREAK AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE
INSTABILITY...UPGLIDE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS TO 1.25 INCHES
TO BRING A THREAT OF A SOAKING RAIN. SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A SULLIVAN TO BEDFORD LINE ARE IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A MARGINAL RISK FURTHER NORTH TO
AROUND A SEYMOUR TO TERRE HAUTE LINE. FORCING NEAR THE FRONT ALONG
WITH VEERING AND 30 PLUS KNOT 100-700 MILLIBAR SHEAR...SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD. COULD SEE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN TORNADOES SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST. THE DEGREE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON IF THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW INSTABILITY TO MAXIMIZE. VERY
CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN ON SATURDAY...SO WILL
KEEP NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOW SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 06Z AND THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES
ABSORBED BY A LOT OFF THE EASTERN COAST. THUS...THE RAIN SHOULD END
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. COULD CERTAINLY SEE OVER AN INCH OF
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

FAVOR THE COOLER 12Z MOS AND ECM HIGHS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. OTHERWISE...STAYED CLOSE TO SIMILAR
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THAT BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. LINGERING 850 MILLIBAR
MOISTURE PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DIURNAL FAIR WEATHER CU...OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT.

12Z MOS AND ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE AND REASONABLE
SUGGESTING A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE AND BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...WEAK RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SINKING OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
REMAINS UNAVAILABLE AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES ARE POORLY ORGANIZED.
SUPERBLEND HINTS AT LOW CHC POPS AT THIS FEATURE...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF COORDINATION OF FEATURES.
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY
AS UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AS THE NEXT WEEKEND BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO WESTERN KENTUCKY
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. BUT FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR MOST OF TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS MID MORNING ON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF VCTS AT KHUF AND KBMG TAF
SITES. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOME AREAS BY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PULL AWAY.

SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EAST 10 TO 15
KNOTS ON SATURDAY AND NORTHEAST 8 TO 12 KNOTS SATURDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH/JP

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