Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 190758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS INDIANA LATER TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. COOLER WEATHER AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW FROM CANADA IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE RECENT TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION
FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES INTO THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TN/OH VALLEY/S.
ARRIVAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA IS STILL NOT DUE
UNTIL MUCH LATER THIS MORNING...CLOSER TO 6-7 AM...SO WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWLY DOWN THE ONSET ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS FOR LATER TODAY AS MODELS STILL
REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND...GUIDANCE WAS INITIALLY WAY TOO FAST WITH TIMING. THE FIRST
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM 12-00Z AND THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF QPF
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.5-1.0" OF
RAIN POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FROM THE WAVE MIXED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO RUMBLE THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE STILL NOT ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME SEVERE BUT ANY STORM CAN PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY CONSIDERING THE RAIN/CLOUDS
WHICH GIVES CENTRAL INDIANA HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ON AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

BY THIS EVENING...AFTER THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA...THERE LIKELY WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY...FROM ABOUT 23Z TO
MIDNIGHT...THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE WORKS IT/S WAY INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY PUSH E/NE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL MOVES MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
FIRST AND NOT PACK AS MUCH QPF...AROUND 0.25 OR UP TO 0.50 AT MOST.
ALSO...BY MONDAY MORNING THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS SO WORKED OVER THERE
IS HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY LEFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST BY MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF RAIN WILL BE LEFT IN THE AREA AND WENT DRY FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. HAD TO ALSO UNDERCUT HIGHS ON MONDAY DUE TO THE RAIN/CLOUDS
FOR COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TUESDAY LOOK DRY AS
WELL...HOWEVER STILL KEEPING WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
WESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
COULD POSSIBLY BRING WEAK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PUSHES FARTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
CENTRAL INDIANA. SO...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THAT LATEST REGIONAL INITIALIZATION HAS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THOUGH FOR SATURDAY.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL AS FLOW REMAINS
NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
EAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND THROUGH WESTERN
INDIANA BRINGING RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE SITES DURING THE
MORNING. RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
OVERSPREAD THE SITES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

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