Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 260151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL MIDWEEK AND
SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

RADAR SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR REGION AS LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF
VIRGINIA.  MAIN CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE WILL BE TO DROP MENTION OF
THUNDER AS THUNDERSTORMS WERE WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING LATER TONIGHT PER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
OCCURRING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT.  OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FAR SOUTH. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER AS BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES SHOULD KEEP IT DRY. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT VERY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. HOWEVER...RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGESTS THERE
WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF FAIR WEATHER DIURNAL CU AROUND EACH
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. COULD BE SOME FROST
AROUND CLOSE TO DAWN EACH MORNING...BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL PER
PROJECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WIND SPEED.

WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...PREFER TO GO WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 12Z MOS WHICH TRANSLATES TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. TUESDAY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THOUGH AS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER SYSTEM
PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA LARGELY
UNAFFECTED. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW INITIALLY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY
MILD...WITH SOME WARMUP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE AREA.

BLENDED INITIALIZATION HANDLED THINGS WELL AND FEW CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST MAIN LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS EVENING...EXITING THE TAF SITES
AROUND 260300Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING PERIODS OF RAIN TO AFFECT
MAINLY KIND/KHUF/KBMG UNTIL THEN. THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SO CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKES...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATER
THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SO EXPECTING THE IFR
CEILINGS...007-009 AGL...TO GRADUALLY LIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON. SINKING MOTIONS LOOK FAIRLY STRONG BY THE PRE
DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER BELOW
050 TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

WILL KEEP SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 20-22 KTS FROM 060-080 DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK SOME
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

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